身边的经济学·社会常识英语精读30篇（3）
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Public Debt Sustainability Beyond the Headline Ratio
公共债务可持续性：超越 headline 比率的深层维度
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A debt-to-GDP ratio below 60% offers no automatic safety guarantee if most borrowing funds short-term consumption rather than productive public investment.
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Sustainability hinges on currency denomination, maturity structure, and primary fiscal balance—not just aggregate stock figures reported quarterly.
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Emerging economies face greater rollover risk when foreign-currency debt exceeds export earnings, regardless of headline ratios.
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Domestic debt held by pension funds or central banks behaves very differently from market-held sovereign bonds during stress episodes.
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Debt service costs matter more than total stock: rising interest rates can destabilize budgets even with static debt levels.
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Countries with indexed bonds, long maturities, and credible fiscal councils show lower yield volatility despite similar debt ratios.
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Hidden liabilities—such as unfunded public pension obligations or contingent liabilities from state-owned enterprise guarantees—distort official sustainability assessments.
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Fiscal space erosion often begins not with deficits but with declining revenue elasticity amid structural economic shifts.
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Debt sustainability frameworks now incorporate climate exposure metrics, recognizing physical and transition risks as fiscal shock multipliers.
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Ultimately, debt is sustainable only when servicing it does not crowd out essential public functions or constrain countercyclical capacity.