身边的经济学·社会常识英语30篇（9）
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Batch-0032-032: Currency Substitution Thresholds in High-Inflation Economies
批次0032-032：高通胀经济体中的货币替代临界点
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When annual inflation exceeds 50%, households and firms begin pricing goods in foreign currency.当年通胀率超过50%时，家庭和企业开始以外国货币为商品标价。
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This informal dollarization accelerates once local notes lose purchasing power faster than wage adjustments.一旦本币贬值速度超过工资调整速度，这种非正式美元化便会加速。
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Banks start offering dual-currency accounts, though central banks prohibit lending in foreign money.银行开始提供双币种账户，但央行禁止以外币放贷。
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At the 80% threshold, even government fees—like court fines—are quoted in USD equivalents.当美元化程度达80%时，连法院罚款等政府收费也直接以美元计价。
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Monetary authorities lose seigniorage revenue and interest-rate transmission effectiveness simultaneously.货币当局同时丧失铸币税收入和利率传导有效性。
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Fiscal deficits widen because tax collection lags behind dollarized spending patterns.财政赤字扩大，因税收征缴滞后于美元化的支出模式。
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Informal exchange bureaus operate near post offices, bypassing official interbank rates entirely.非正式兑换点在邮局附近运营，完全绕过官方银行间汇率。
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Policymakers face a paradox: tightening policy risks deeper recession, while easing fuels further substitution.政策制定者陷入两难：收紧政策可能加剧衰退，放松政策又会进一步推动货币替代。
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Cross-border remittance flows increasingly settle directly in stablecoins or regional settlement units.跨境汇款 increasingly 直接以稳定币或区域结算单位清算。
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Currency substitution thus reflects not just distrust, but a systemic breakdown in monetary contract legitimacy.货币替代因此反映的不仅是信任缺失，更是货币契约合法性的系统性崩塌。